"Recession Indicators Update: We developed the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard to help us monitor the economy across 12 indicators. We chose these after studying the indicators that, in aggregate, were most predictive of economic distress. At present, 11 of the 12 ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard indicators we track remain green [(Expansion), with one yellow (Caution), and none red (Recession)].
While the yield curve has flattened and credit spreads have widened, both remain green at this time. Both indicators are part of the financial markets section of the dashboard, while the portions of the dashboard that focus on the “real” economy remain healthy. Put differently, consumer health and business activity are showing few signs of stress, while inflation remains in check."
(Recession Indicators Update: Lessons from the Last Cycle dated 12/10/2018 by Jeffrey Schulze CFA, Director & Investment Strategist, with ClearBridge Investments)
Full article can be found here: https://www.clearbridge.com/news/blogs/2018/recession-indicators-last-cycle.html