Skip to main content


Members of D.A. Davidson & Co.

Relationship between Market Cap to GDP Ratios and Subsequent 10-year Returns

"Based on the historical relationship between market cap to GDP ratios and subsequent 10-year returns, today’s market valuation suggests that the annual return on a broad U.S. equity portfolio over the next 10 years is likely to be very disappointing. As such, investors may want to seek better opportunities elsewhere. Equity valuations are less stretched in other developed and emerging markets, which may present more upside potential."


(Stocks for the Long Run? Not Now dated 09/27/17 by Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO; Brian Smedley, Senior Managing Director, Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research; Matt Bush, Vice President, of Guggenheim Partners, LLC)