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Six High Frequency Indicators for the Eventual Recovery

Six High Frequency Indicators for the Eventual Recovery


  1. The daily total traveler throughput from the TSA ...On May 24th there were 267,451 travelers compared to 2,070,716 a year ago.  That is a decline of 87.1%. There has been some increase off the bottom, but it is pretty small compared to the normal level of travel.

  2. year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities.  ...This data is updated through May 23, 2020. The US was off 100% YoY as of March 21st.  California and New York are still off 100%.  Some states - like Texas and Georgia - have started to open up. In Texas, diner traffic was only down 63% YoY. 

  3. This data shows domestic box office ...Data is from BoxOfficeMojo. ...Movie ticket sales have been essentially at zero for nine weeks.   Basically movie theaters are closed all across the country, and will probably reopen slowly (probably with limited seating at first).

  4. ...the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average ...2020 was off to a solid start, however, COVID-19 has crushed hotel occupancy. ...STR reported hotel occupancy was off 54.1% year-over-year last week.  Occupancy has increased slightly over the last few of weeks.

  5. ...Based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) ...At one point, gasoline consumption was off almost 50% YoY.  As of May 15th, gasoline consumption was off about 20% YoY (about 72% of normal). 

  6. Apple mobility. This data is through May 22nd for the United States.  According to the Apple data, driving is back to normal, walking is close to normal, but public transit is still off 64% from the pre-crisis level."


    (Six High Frequency Indicators for the Eventual Recovery dated 5/25/2020 by Bill McBride via


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