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Members of D.A. Davidson & Co.

Current Reading of the Economic Tea Leaves

"Here's my current reading of the economic tea leaves:


1) the September CPI inflation release confirms that ex-energy inflation continues on the 2% per year trend which has prevailed for almost two decades;

2) Small Business Optimism has rebounded strongly and confirms the presence of a V-shaped recovery;

3) very low real interest rates on Treasuries confirm that safety is extremely expensive, Treasuries are a bad deal for investors and a great deal for the federal government;

4) stock prices continue to drift higher, confirming an improving economic and favorable political environment;

5) commodity prices have staged a strong V-shaped recovery, which suggests the global economic outlook has improved dramatically; 

6) TSA throughput says air travel is recovering at only a modest pace (not everything is coming up roses)."


(The economic tea leaves look favorable dated October 14, 2020 by 2020 by Scott Grannis, Chief Economist with Western Asset Management from 1979-2007)


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